During football season I declare "Free Money" games. A Free Money game is a football game where I declare a certain bet a 100% lock. You may laugh, but last season (the inaugural season of Free Money Declarations) I was 7/7. The chances of that being pure luck are (0.5)^7 = 0.78%. I will admit some of it was luck as there were a couple comebacks to cover. The key is to pick your spots and pick them early in the season when teams are mispriced over limited data.
Anyhow, Saturday is Free Money Saturday. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish versus the Penn State Felines of an Esoteric Sort game is free money. Take Notre Dame and give the points -- 17.5 to be exact -- and enjoy doubling your scratch. I know I will.
I won't get into details about why I think, nay, know this is free money but I will offer a snippet of an AIM conversation I'm having right now:
WeTalllDid: at the very absolute least we will cover
WeTalllDid: we aint bustas
For the record, I'm not an uber-homer when I lay down bets. I'm not proud of it, but I actually bet against ND back in 2003 against NC State because it was painfully obvious we were overrated. I'm not proud of that wager and I wouldn't do it again. It's just that I wasn't as huge of an ND fan as I am today and I needed the money really bad so it was hard to pass up.
PS the money line is a ridiculous 7:1
We aint bustas.
1 comment:
Good for people to know.
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